A lot of things in terms of whether and how the political crisis in Macedonia could be resolved will become much clearer as of next week when the summer vacation of Macedonia’s top political figures comes to an end, Utrinski vesnik reports.
While waiting for the autumn, which is frequently regarded as a key period for political breaks and major events, various are the forecasts of the political analysts as to how the situation in the Macedonian political arena may further unfold. Will there be a political deal whereupon the opposition will return to Parliament or will the resignations of the opposition MPs be verified which would raise a new dilemma of how to fill the vacated seats?
However, whatever the outcome, hardly anyone believes that the political situation could suspend the EC recommendation for letting Macedonia open EU membership negotiations even though it is quite on the cards that the knotty political dialogue and the parliamentary crisis will be taken note of in this year’s EC report on Macedonia’s progress.
According to political analyst Vladimir Bozinovski from the Institute for Political Research in Skopje, the question is not whether but when SDSM returns to Parliament.
“The timing of the return depends on when their leader Zoran Zaev finds strong enough arguments to withdraw the decision to not recognize the results of the elections and the untenable demand for setting up a caretaker government,” he says.
According to Bozinovski, SDSM will not be able to stay out of institutions for much longer and Parliament, in his view, is the key institution through which the party can make itself more visible and can try to draw those unsatisfied with the governing structure.
Unless Zaev gives up his demand for a caretaker government, Bozinovski says, and talks remain in a limbo, a great turmoil may be expected inside SDSM for it is evident as it is that not all its members feel very enthusiastic about the idea of a parliamentary boycott.
Analyst Guner Ismail, on the other hand, believes that a major discord in SDSM will be triggered not if Zaev continues to insist on a caretaker government but if he renounces this demand. However, he does not believe that SDSM would give up their crucial demand and does not expect the parliamentary crisis to be resolved any time soon.
“Small are the chances for the two parties to reach an agreement soon because of VMRO-DPMNE’s inflexible position toward SDSM’s demands. On the other hand, SDSM’s giving up of any of its demands would be a huge mistake that could break up the party,” Ismail says.
In his view, the opposition party must closely define what a caretaker government six months prior to elections means to avoid manipulation and public speculation about this issue.