VMRO-DPMNE and BDI are going to win fewer parliamentary seats in the coming early elections from the previous poll yet their win will be convincing and they will be able to form a majority government without the participation of other smaller parties. The decision to include other political factors in the governing team is going to depend on the result of the smaller parties where no major surprises are expected.

This is the conclusion that can be inferred from Dnevnik’s last opinion poll conducted by the agency Rating. Asked what political party they would vote for if elections were held tomorrow, 24.3 percent of the interviewees said VMRO-DPMNE, 16 percent SDSM, 8.1 percent BDI, 3.9 percent PDSH, 3.4 percent Demokracia e Re, 2.3 percent United for Macedonia, 2.2 percent Rufi Osmani’s party, 2.1 percent  LDP and 1.4 percent VMRO-NP.

Translated into numbers of parliamentary seats, in the new Parliament VMRO-DPMNE would have 51 seats as opposed to the previous 63, SDSM 32, BDI 14, PDSH 7, Rufi Osmani 3, Democracia e Re 4, United for Macedonia 3, LDP 2, and other parties 4. Seventy-two percent of the citizens said they would go to the polls and 33.2 percent are undecided.

Relative to the previous measuring of the rating in March this year, VMRO-DPMNE’s rating dropped 0.8 percentage points, while SDSM’s rating went up 0.8 percentage points. The ratings of BDI and Demokracia e Re have not changed, as Rufi Osmani’s rating climbed up 0.5 percentage points.

Although most believe that VMRO-DPMNE’s high rating is largely a result of the rigid stance to the name issue with Greece, the people’s view of the key economic issues is indicative. Asked whether the government of SDSM or the government of VMRO-DPMNE could handle successfully unemployment and poverty, 24 percent said the government of VMRO-DPMNE would handle those problems better, as 15 percent said that the government of SDSM would be more successful. The fact that the results obtained in response to the latter questions are almost the same as the results obtained in response to the former question reveals, according to experts, that the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia vote based on the most essential issues that concern them on a daily basis – unemployment and poverty - and not based on issues related to the identity or name.

Compared to the previous public opinion polls conducted from November to April, VMRO-DPMNE has a small yet steady decline from 26.7 percent in November to 24.3 percent in April. Analysts say that by the election day the rating of the ruling party may decline further by 0.5-1 percentage point but considering that a campaign is ahead it may also stay the same.

Considering that in the early elections of 2008, the agency Rating’s poll conducted a month before the elections predicted with great precisions the outcome of the vote – VMRO-DPMNE was predicted to win 62 and won 63 and SDSM was predicted to win 28 and won 27 parliamentary seats – the election campaign is not likely to change significantly these poll results.

Rating’s analysts say that the number of seats that the smaller political parties are expected to win should be taken with reserve and cannot be determined with great precision considering that the percentage of citizens supporting them is within the confines of the statistical error and most of them are likely to win only one parliamentary seat. An exception from this rule is Rufi Osmani who hopes to win three seats in the sixth elections unit, primarily in the region of Gostivar. The total number of seats of the small political parties in the Macedonian political campus, according to the opinion poll, is not expected to exceed 9.